?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AVULUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 21 game
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
40%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 19 games
32%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 18 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 17 games
71%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
60%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Fly · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Wein · 15 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 15 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
565 picks · 712 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 352 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 658 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 545 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
404 picks · 137 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
391 picks · 185 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 517 bans
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 526 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:47
Aurora Gaming 68%AVULUS 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by AVULUS in 52:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
50% · 219 games49% · 200 games
LifestealerSmiling Knight
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
49% · 323 games54% · 395 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsWs
46% · 233 games55% · 410 games
Tinydualrazee
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
49% · 211 games59% · 9 games
Treant Protectorasdekor_r
Treant Protector
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
43% · 144 games50% · 116 games
Skywrath MageWein
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct33:15
Aurora Gaming 69%AVULUS 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNightfall
48% · 470 games49% · 279 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
55% · 222 games49% · 492 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
52% · 449 games51% · 277 games
Sand KingCorrupted
Sand King
Tiny
TinyMira
47% · 515 games47% · 474 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
51% · 219 games53% · 353 games
RingmasterWein
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct31:4
Aurora Gaming 69%AVULUS 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
54% · 183 games49% · 292 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Viper
ViperMikoto
53% · 52 games51% · 92 games
JuggernautSmiling Knight
Juggernaut
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
53% · 337 games48% · 114 games
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
50% · 206 games50% · 341 game
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Tusk
TuskMira
47% · 449 games47% · 388 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 81%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3