EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NoLogoJustMMRwin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DOGSENTloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoLogoJustMMR
No games played over 6 months.
DOGSENT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
566 picks · 712 bans
Tusk
508 picks · 353 bans
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 658 bans
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 545 bans
Snapfire
406 picks · 137 bans
Hoodwink
392 picks · 185 bans
Mars
375 picks · 519 bans
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% NoLogoJustMMR
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% DOGSENT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
NoLogoJustMMR 47%DOGSENT 53%
The model gave 53% on DOGSENT — the game was taken by NoLogoJustMMR.
Game 2prediction correct
NoLogoJustMMR 47%DOGSENT 53%
The model gave 53% on DOGSENT — the game was taken by DOGSENT.
Game 3prediction missed
NoLogoJustMMR 47%DOGSENT 53%
The model gave 53% on DOGSENT — the game was taken by NoLogoJustMMR.
Model check result
Model favoriteDOGSENT · 53%
Series resultNoLogoJustMMR 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3