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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Teehee · 8 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dric~ · 6 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ken · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Teehee · 4 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
25%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 4 games
75%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 15 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 11 games
36%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 10 games
50%
Pugna
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
564 picks · 712 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 353 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 659 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 546 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
410 picks · 138 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
394 picks · 186 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 521 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 523 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Ivory
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:26
Ivory 34%Team Nemesis 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 53:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKarma丶
44% · 36 games52% · 45 games
Clinkz23savage
Clinkz
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
51% · 218 games47% · 316 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterRupido
49% · 105 games46% · 37 games
BrewmasterRaven
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDric~
52% · 124 games57% · 109 games
Keeper of the LightJhocam
Keeper of the Light
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageTeehee
48% · 35 games53% · 11 games
Treant ProtectorJaunuel
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct21:41
Ivory 36%Team Nemesis 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:06:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKarma丶
39% · 94 games50% · 551 game
Dragon Knight23savage
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
48% · 368 games55% · 273 games
TidehunterRaven
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyRupido
47% · 467 games52% · 62 games
Earth SpiritMac
Earth Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDric~
49% · 266 games51% · 508 games
WarlockJaunuel
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroTeehee
51% · 549 games56% · 350 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 74%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2