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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 14 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 11 games
36%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 10 games
50%
Pugna
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
569 picks · 705 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 350 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 661 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 548 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
416 picks · 140 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 188 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 520 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 520 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:32
Yangon Galacticos 36%Team Nemesis 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:13:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKsh
52% · 249 games68% · 8 games
Drow Ranger23savage
Drow Ranger
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYoung PH
54% · 131 game51% · 102 games
TinyMac
Tiny
41% · 78 games
TimbersawRaven
Timbersaw
47% · 114 games
JakiroJaunuel
Jakiro
45% · 78 games
Shadow ShamanJhocam
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct20:30
Yangon Galacticos 34%Team Nemesis 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYoung PH
44% · 92 games61% · 15 games
Clinkz23savage
Clinkz
Windranger
WindrangerKsh
47% · 137 games47% · 76 games
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
Centaur Warrunner
63% · 49 games
SlardarMac
Slardar
51% · 29 games
ClockwerkJaunuel
Clockwerk
53% · 60 games
MuertaJhocam
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 79%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2