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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 2:1
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 10 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Matthew · 10 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Michael · 9 games
44%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 24 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
568 picks · 701 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 350 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 663 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 547 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
418 picks · 144 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 191 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 524 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 520 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Peru Rejects 15%Heroic 85%
The model gave 85% on Heroic — the game was taken by Peru Rejects.
Game 2prediction correct
Peru Rejects 15%Heroic 85%
The model gave 85% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic.
Game 3prediction missed
Peru Rejects 15%Heroic 85%
The model gave 85% on Heroic — the game was taken by Peru Rejects.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 85%
Series resultPeru Rejects 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3