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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 24 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%

Estar Backs

Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 6 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Accel · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
565 picks · 700 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 349 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 663 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 547 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
418 picks · 144 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 191 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 522 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 518 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:17
Heroic 79%Estar Backs 21%
The model gave 79% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerWisper
48% · 36 games38% · 14 games
OmniknightbsK7-
Omniknight
Ursa
UrsaYuma
60% · 85 games47% · 233 games
JakiroAccel
Jakiro
Tidehunter
TidehunterDavai
52% · 104 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKJ
61% · 19 games
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorThiolicor
43% · 3 games
Game 2prediction correct46:20
Heroic 78%Estar Backs 22%
The model gave 78% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYuma
47% · 49 games53% · 20 games
OmniknightbsK7-
Omniknight
Huskar
HuskarWisper
46% · 46 games51% · 325 games
JakiroAccel
Jakiro
Tidehunter
TidehunterDavai
52% · 104 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKJ
48% · 36 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
49% · 110 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 93%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2