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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 36 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 30 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 29 games
66%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 27 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 24 games
54%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 21 game
67%

Level UP

Windranger
Windranger
chempik · 9 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 8 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 8 games
88%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
67%
Lich
Lich
Htrd · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
20%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
512 picks · 359 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 247 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
349 picks · 361 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 634 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
325 picks · 234 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 414 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
288 picks · 310 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
283 picks · 269 bans
62%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total62% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:40
Zero Tenacity 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP in 51:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
44% · 170 games47% · 117 games
Dark SeerBb3px
Dark Seer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendnesfeer
55% · 262 games47% · 418 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritWorick
46% · 83 games56% · 109 games
AlchemistWoE
Alchemist
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
53% · 410 games51% · 185 games
UndyingHtrd
Undying
Bane
BaneMoOz
52% · 231 game48% · 327 games
Clockwerkraregods
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct41:9
Zero Tenacity 57%Level UP 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendnesfeer
49% · 280 games49% · 229 games
TerrorbladeWoE
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanMikSa`
56% · 141 game51% · 194 games
InvokerAinkrad
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
51% · 314 games47% · 186 games
DawnbreakerBb3px
Dawnbreaker
Mirana
Miranamrls
51% · 45 games48% · 269 games
Clockwerkraregods
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskMoOz
51% · 369 games46% · 271 game
RingmasterHtrd
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed32:38
Zero Tenacity 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinynesfeer
51% · 486 games56% · 238 games
Shadow FiendWoE
Shadow Fiend
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritWorick
44% · 86 games59% · 338 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingMikSa`
47% · 166 games48% · 202 games
AxeBb3px
Axe
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMoOz
51% · 79 games55% · 189 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
38% · 187 games48% · 37 games
Witch DoctorHtrd
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 62%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3