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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
x5 Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 4 games
25%
Kez
Kez
Wits · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 4 games
25%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 3 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
TaiLung · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Wits · 3 games
33%

x5 Gaming

Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Pamplona · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
100%
Muerta
Muerta
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
564 picks · 695 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 343 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
484 picks · 662 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 538 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 145 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 191 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 520 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 512 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:4
Amaru Gaming 49%x5 Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 30:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzWits
67% · 10 games58% · 85 games
Centaur WarrunnerHermit
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterOscar
44% · 75 games46% · 28 games
Skywrath MagePamplona
Skywrath Mage
Viper
ViperTaiLung
42% · 23 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorGardick
56% · 5 games
Game 2prediction correct18:6
Amaru Gaming 51%x5 Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 22:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTaiLung
57% · 83 games48% · 138 games
TidehunterHermit
Tidehunter
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWits
63% · 22 games41% · 55 games
SniperPamplona
Sniper
Slardar
SlardarOscar
52% · 60 games
Undying
UndyingGardick
47% · 28 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 52%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2