DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCatChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Bignum · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 7 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Fayde · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 4 games
CatChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
564 picks · 695 bans
Tusk
509 picks · 343 bans
Dragon Knight
484 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 538 bans
Snapfire
419 picks · 145 bans
Hoodwink
402 picks · 191 bans
Mars
378 picks · 520 bans
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% CatChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
GamerLegion 53%CatChamp 47%
The model gave 53% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterRCY
TerrorbladeK1
UnderlordFayde
PangolierGunnar
ViperYamSun
TidehunterITALIANO GANGSTA
ChenSpeeed
Shadow Demonwaveformn
ClockwerkBignum
WarlockDuBu
Game 2prediction correct30:15
GamerLegion 55%CatChamp 45%
The model gave 55% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYamSun
ClinkzK1
Storm SpiritRCY
UnderlordITALIANO GANGSTA
BristlebackFayde
InvokerGunnar
RingmasterBignum
Hoodwinkwaveformn
Treant ProtectorSpeeed
UndyingDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 60%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2