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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BTC Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ILICH- · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Panda · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
payk · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Matthew · 1 game
100%
Pugna
Pugna
Panda · 1 game
100%

BTC Gaming

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Mnz · 1 game
100%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Mnz · 1 game
100%
Bane
Bane
Prada · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lumière · 1 game
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Lumière · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lumière · 1 game
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
564 picks · 695 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 343 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
484 picks · 662 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 538 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 145 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 191 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 520 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 512 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:11
Looking for Org 65%BTC Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpayk
52% · 257 games43% · 58 games
LunaMnz
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawILICH-
56% · 172 games49% · 402 games
PuckLumière
Puck
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPiPi
57% · 210 games49% · 326 games
HoodwinkMjz
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
48% · 318 games49% · 418 games
JakiroPrada
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMatthew
47% · 247 games
Game 2prediction correct29:23
Looking for Org 65%BTC Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 48:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverpayk
42% · 48 games47% · 50 games
SlarkMnz
Slark
Underlord
UnderlordILICH-
52% · 46 games51% · 122 games
LeshracLumière
Leshrac
Viper
ViperPiPi
60% · 30 games56% · 151 game
ChenPrada
Chen
Warlock
WarlockPanda
46% · 171 game52% · 52 games
Spirit BreakerMjz
Spirit Breaker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
44% · 80 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 78%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2