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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 28 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 20 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 18 games
44%
Axe
Axe
Tino- · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
36%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 14 games
43%

Ivory

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Dric~ · 7 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dric~ · 6 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ken · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Teehee · 4 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
25%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Teehee · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Teehee · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
559 picks · 688 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
508 picks · 339 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 662 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 534 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
422 picks · 146 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
403 picks · 192 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 517 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 508 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Ivory
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total84% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:2
Execration 71%Ivory 29%
The model gave 71% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 24:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarPalos
56% · 86 games53% · 135 games
MedusaKarma丶
Medusa
Doom
DoomTino-
49% · 311 games50% · 158 games
PuckKen
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
48% · 425 games47% · 247 games
TinyRupido
Tiny
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageShanks
43% · 102 games55% · 202 games
BatriderDric~
Batrider
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorcml
62% · 14 games49% · 196 games
GyrocopterTeehee
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct29:23
Execration 67%Ivory 33%
The model gave 67% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 45:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPalos
48% · 129 games46% · 314 games
TerrorbladeKarma丶
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
60% · 351 game50% · 235 games
SlardarKen
Slardar
Tidehunter
TidehunterTino-
45% · 262 games51% · 51 game
ViperRupido
Viper
Muerta
MuertaShanks
54% · 282 games50% · 378 games
JakiroTeehee
Jakiro
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
47% · 168 games49% · 214 games
Shadow ShamanDric~
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 84%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2