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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
74%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 27 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 23 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 20 games
75%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 16 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Wein · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
560 picks · 680 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
510 picks · 337 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 662 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 536 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
426 picks · 147 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 194 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 518 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 509 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:15
1w Team 66%AVULUS 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMunkushi~
49% · 39 games56% · 99 games
Linadualrazee
Lina
Viper
ViperSquad1x
54% · 20 games45% · 94 games
WeaverSmiling Knight
Weaver
Axe
AxeSSS
41% · 68 games51% · 107 games
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
53% · 127 games50% · 96 games
Skywrath MageWein
Skywrath Mage
Jakiro
JakiroRein
51% · 151 game62% · 9 games
Treant Protectorasdekor_r
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct20:18
1w Team 66%AVULUS 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMunkushi~
60% · 99 games45% · 123 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinySquad1x
46% · 626 games55% · 257 games
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordSSS
50% · 137 games43% · 184 games
BeastmasterCorrupted
Beastmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRein
46% · 96 games58% · 177 games
RingmasterWein
Ringmaster
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorswedenstrong
57% · 6 games45% · 223 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2