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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:1
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Teehee · 6 games
17%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ken · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Teehee · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
25%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Teehee · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Teehee · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Rupido · 3 games
67%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 14 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
45%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Pugna
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 9 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
13%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Ponyo · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
559 picks · 676 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 336 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 660 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 530 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
426 picks · 148 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
403 picks · 195 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 518 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 507 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Ivory
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:27
Ivory 37%Team Nemesis 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 27:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKarma丶
51% · 85 games49% · 184 games
Templar Assassin23savage
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckKen
53% · 365 games40% · 55 games
TinkerMac
Tinker
Timbersaw
TimbersawRupido
55% · 182 games49% · 118 games
TidehunterRaven
Tidehunter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerDric~
46% · 61 game51% · 310 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionTeehee
57% · 158 games45% · 184 games
DisruptorJaunuel
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed40:25
Ivory 34%Team Nemesis 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Ivory in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKarma丶
52% · 208 games44% · 67 games
TinkerMac
Tinker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
45% · 383 games53% · 64 games
Huskar23savage
Huskar
Underlord
UnderlordRupido
52% · 98 games51% · 261 game
BatriderRaven
Batrider
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDric~
46% · 349 games45% · 380 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorTeehee
63% · 8 games62% · 274 games
BristlebackJaunuel
Bristleback
Game 3prediction missed30:28
Ivory 35%Team Nemesis 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Ivory in 52:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKarma丶
48% · 153 games51% · 258 games
Storm Spirit23savage
Storm Spirit
Huskar
HuskarKen
48% · 57 games53% · 45 games
ViperMac
Viper
Slardar
SlardarRupido
53% · 137 games43% · 164 games
AxeRaven
Axe
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTeehee
49% · 102 games57% · 78 games
Keeper of the LightJhocam
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
DisruptorDric~
47% · 147 games52% · 51 game
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 79%
Series resultIvory 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3