DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBAIYAWAKloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Dragon Knightoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
BAIYAWAK
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Windranger
Jing · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 672 bans
Tusk
506 picks · 336 bans
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 661 bans
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 530 bans
Snapfire
424 picks · 150 bans
Hoodwink
405 picks · 195 bans
Mars
374 picks · 518 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength63% BAIYAWAK
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
Yangon Galacticos 49%BAIYAWAK 51%
The model gave 51% on BAIYAWAK — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 51:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendKsh
SnapfireJing
SlarkYoung PH
Dragon KnightAkashi
Game 2prediction missed27:23
Yangon Galacticos 49%BAIYAWAK 51%
The model gave 51% on BAIYAWAK — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 43:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendYoung PH
Dragon KnightAkashi
SlarkKsh
SnapfireJing
Game 3prediction missed21:37
Yangon Galacticos 50%BAIYAWAK 50%
The model gave 50% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by BAIYAWAK in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingKsh
Naga SirenAkashi
Storm SpiritYoung PH
TuskJing
Game 4prediction missed25:21
Yangon Galacticos 48%BAIYAWAK 52%
The model gave 52% on BAIYAWAK — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerYoung PH
AbaddonAkashi
SlarkKsh
MuertaJing
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 51%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 4