DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Second Windloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BBAIYAWAKwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Second Wind
No games played over 6 months.
BAIYAWAK
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
561 picks · 666 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 334 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 661 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 532 bans
Snapfire
433 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
412 picks · 198 bans
Mars
380 picks · 516 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Second Wind
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% BAIYAWAK
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:29
Second Wind 40%BAIYAWAK 60%
The model gave 60% on BAIYAWAK — the game was taken by BAIYAWAK in 39:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritBeebie
TerrorbladeAkashi
Centaur WarrunnerNevermine
WindrangerJing
MuertaTrazaM
Game 2prediction correct9:30
Second Wind 38%BAIYAWAK 62%
The model gave 62% on BAIYAWAK — the game was taken by BAIYAWAK in 24:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracBeebie
UrsaAkashi
TidehunterNevermine
BatriderJing
TuskTrazaM
Model check result
Model favoriteBAIYAWAK · 70%
Series resultBAIYAWAK 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2