DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionHH1N1loss 0:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CCatChampwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
H1N1
No games played over 6 months.
CatChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
561 picks · 666 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 334 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 661 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 532 bans
Snapfire
433 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
412 picks · 198 bans
Mars
380 picks · 516 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% H1N1
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% CatChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
H1N1 22%CatChamp 78%
The model gave 78% on CatChamp — the game was taken by CatChamp.
Model check result
Model favoriteCatChamp · 78%
Series resultCatChamp 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1