DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 1:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Level UPloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 12 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Pucksignature
mellojul · 10 games
Sand King
mellojul · 9 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Level UP
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Atoufix · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
MaTson · 11 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 10 games
Tusk
Atoufix · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
MaTson · 9 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
560 picks · 666 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 334 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 531 bans
Snapfire
435 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
413 picks · 198 bans
Mars
381 picks · 515 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:14
Team Lynx 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon7jesu
Templar AssassinLowskill
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
PuckMaTson
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
Void SpiritAtoufix
47% · 234 games
JakiroNagato
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 57%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1