DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 1:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PKPandora Krisloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 17 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 16 games
Tusk
Fernans · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Fernans · 13 games
Warlock
flacko · 12 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
Sven
yowaai · 11 games
Pandora Kris
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 663 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 332 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
435 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
413 picks · 197 bans
Mars
380 picks · 515 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Pandora Kris
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:23
Inner Circle 80%Pandora Kris 20%
The model gave 80% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 15:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 80%
Series resultInner Circle 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1