DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 1:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TTbIIIIa_HA_CAnAXloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 7 games
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
Huskaroften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
TbIIIIa_HA_CAnAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
560 picks · 660 bans
Tusk
504 picks · 333 bans
Dragon Knight
487 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 526 bans
Snapfire
437 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
414 picks · 198 bans
Mars
380 picks · 513 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% TbIIIIa_HA_CAnAX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
Team Spirit Academy 76%TbIIIIa_HA_CAnAX 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 29:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1