BTC Gaming vs Infamous — prediction DS2ОО · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

BTC Gamingwin 2:1

series probability

44%56%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Infamousloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BTC Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Infamous

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

562 picks · 652 bans

49%

Tusk

508 picks · 327 bans

49%

Dragon Knight

490 picks · 674 bans

49%

Centaur Warrunner

447 picks · 528 bans

55%

Snapfire

445 picks · 160 bans

49%

Hoodwink

419 picks · 201 bans

53%

Mars

386 picks · 520 bans

49%

Gyrocopter

369 picks · 497 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% BTC Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total56% Infamous

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed26:27

BTC Gaming 45%Infamous 55%

The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by BTC Gaming in 50:37.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo