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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 1:2
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 29 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
kreker · 27 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 23 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 21 game
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 19 games
42%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
QBFY · 17 games
59%

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 17 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
86 · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 11 games
18%
Largo
Largooften banned
kae · 11 games
45%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 10 games
30%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
525 picks · 371 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
426 picks · 254 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
364 picks · 365 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 635 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
329 picks · 427 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
324 picks · 232 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
292 picks · 314 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
290 picks · 222 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total79% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:4
Team Lynx 67%Team Spirit Academy 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
62% · 59 games53% · 28 games
Lina86
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierStormstormer
53% · 24 games50% · 93 games
Dark SeerBatyuk
Dark Seer
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
53% · 56 games48% · 55 games
Earth SpiritAidar
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
32% · 37 games
Game 2prediction missed16:46
Team Lynx 67%Team Spirit Academy 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireVladikTheHtiviy
51% · 158 games43% · 146 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
65% · 32 games48% · 203 games
Batrider86
Batrider
Clockwerk
Clockwerkkreker
53% · 125 games43% · 65 games
GrimstrokeAidar
Grimstroke
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
54% · 99 games
Game 3prediction missed34:39
Team Lynx 67%Team Spirit Academy 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 53:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckStormstormer
45% · 152 games57% · 291 game
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
Centaur Warrunner
Doom
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
38% · 62 games57% · 45 games
Necrophos86
Necrophos
Techies
TechiesQBFY
49% · 47 games53% · 97 games
GrimstrokeAidar
Grimstroke
Tusk
Tuskkreker
45% · 172 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3