DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 1:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
GBGolden Barysloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
raregods · 46 games
Jakirooften banned
Htrd · 43 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 36 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 25 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 24 games
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 23 games
Warlock
Htrd · 22 games
Golden Barys
Lion
ArrOw · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
ArrOw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
562 picks · 648 bans
Tusk
504 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 675 bans
Snapfire
447 picks · 161 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 526 bans
Hoodwink
422 picks · 202 bans
Mars
388 picks · 521 bans
Gyrocopter
369 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Golden Barys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:12
Rune Eaters 66%Golden Barys 34%
The model gave 66% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 26:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracEthereal
TuskArrOw
DawnbreakerAnkou
Chenmonodrama
Tinyani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 78%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1