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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Trailer Park Boysloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Kukuyswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Trailer Park Boys

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
NARMAN · 3 games
67%
Visage
Visageoften banned
eleven · 2 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 2 games
100%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
eleven · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
eleven · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Se · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 1 game
0%

Team Kukuys

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DJ · 6 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Gabbi · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
JG · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
DJ · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Kuku · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Armel · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Armel · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
563 picks · 647 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
505 picks · 327 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 680 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
449 picks · 164 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 525 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
424 picks · 202 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 522 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 498 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Trailer Park Boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:26
Trailer Park Boys 47%Team Kukuys 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSancity
53% · 55 games41% · 131 game
Troll WarlordGabbi
Troll Warlord
Slark
SlarkJaCkky
63% · 30 games49% · 161 game
TimbersawJG
Timbersaw
Slardar
Slardareleven
49% · 121 game50% · 103 games
Keeper of the LightArmel
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskNARMAN
51% · 174 games45% · 51 game
Spirit BreakerDJ
Spirit Breaker
Silencer
SilencerSe
55% · 73 games66% · 7 games
Treant ProtectorKuku
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct
Trailer Park Boys 43%Team Kukuys 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 57%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2