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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Lynxloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 32 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 25 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 25 games
52%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 25 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 24 games
42%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 11 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 10 games
70%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 10 games
40%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 9 games
22%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
564 picks · 648 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
506 picks · 328 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 683 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
451 picks · 166 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 530 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
426 picks · 203 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 527 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 500 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total67% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:34
Zero Tenacity 67%Team Lynx 33%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 58:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 67%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1