BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 14 games
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 8 games
Clockwerk
Ponyo · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 7 games
REKONIX
Disruptor
Varizh · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 7 games
Snapfire
dalul · 7 games
Tusksignature
dalul · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 6 games
Silencersignature
Varizh · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
566 picks · 642 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 329 bans
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 684 bans
Snapfire
461 picks · 171 bans
Centaur Warrunner
442 picks · 526 bans
Hoodwink
430 picks · 206 bans
Mars
392 picks · 528 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 499 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:28
Team Nemesis 50%REKONIX 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by REKONIX in 1:00:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin23savage
GyrocopterTraVins
Ember SpiritMac
TimbersawFbz
BristlebackRaven
ViperinYourdreaM
Skywrath MageJhocam
Muertadalul
JakiroJaunuel
DisruptorVarizh
Game 2prediction missed7:35
Team Nemesis 52%REKONIX 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by REKONIX in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King23savage
GyrocopterTraVins
HuskarMac
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
SlardarRaven
Dark SeerFbz
TuskJhocam
Tinydalul
PhoenixJaunuel
DisruptorVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 52%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2