DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Carstensz Esportswin 1:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
APApex Predatorsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Apex Predators
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
566 picks · 642 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 329 bans
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 684 bans
Snapfire
461 picks · 171 bans
Centaur Warrunner
442 picks · 526 bans
Hoodwink
430 picks · 206 bans
Mars
392 picks · 528 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 499 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Apex Predators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Carstensz Esports 43%Apex Predators 57%
The model gave 57% on Apex Predators — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Predators · 57%
Series resultCarstensz Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1