BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCheeki_Breekiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 23 games
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 19 games
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Satanic · 16 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Cheeki_Breeki
Disruptor
Xakoda · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Malik · 2 games
Weaver
OneJey · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
Jakirooften banned
Xakoda · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Malik · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
OneJey · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
567 picks · 642 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 329 bans
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 685 bans
Snapfire
461 picks · 171 bans
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 526 bans
Hoodwink
432 picks · 206 bans
Mars
392 picks · 527 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 499 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
PARIVISION 76%Cheeki_Breeki 24%
The model gave 76% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 47:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSatanic
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
BrewmasterDM
Ember SpiritLorenof
SlardarNo[o]ne
TidehunterMalik
Io9Class
DisruptorXakoda
UndyingDukalis
Shadow DemonOneJey
Game 2prediction correct23:7
PARIVISION 75%Cheeki_Breeki 25%
The model gave 75% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 26:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSatanic
Ember SpiritLorenof
Centaur WarrunnerDM
UrsaDarkLord^
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
AxeMalik
Io9Class
GyrocopterOneJey
Treant ProtectorDukalis
Ancient ApparitionXakoda
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 90%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2