BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TPTrailer Park Boysloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 14 games
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 8 games
Clockwerk
Ponyo · 7 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Akashi · 7 games
Trailer Park Boys
Beastmasteroften banned
eleven · 1 game
Jakirooften banned
Se · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Sancity · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
NARMAN · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Tusk
NARMAN · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Visageoften banned
eleven · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
569 picks · 639 bans
Tusk
507 picks · 331 bans
Dragon Knight
498 picks · 683 bans
Snapfire
473 picks · 177 bans
Centaur Warrunner
442 picks · 526 bans
Hoodwink
437 picks · 212 bans
Mars
396 picks · 533 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Trailer Park Boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:34
Team Nemesis 55%Trailer Park Boys 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:11:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz23savage
GyrocopterJaCkky
TinyMac
Shadow FiendSancity
SlardarRaven
ChenSe
MuertaJhocam
Centaur Warrunnereleven
Treant ProtectorJaunuel
Shadow ShamanNARMAN
Game 2prediction missed35:39
Team Nemesis 54%Trailer Park Boys 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys in 1:00:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger23savage
SlarkJaCkky
TidehunterRaven
Slardareleven
TinyMac
Ember SpiritSancity
MuertaJhocam
WarlockSe
BaneJaunuel
Shadow ShamanNARMAN
Game 3prediction correct25:14
Team Nemesis 54%Trailer Park Boys 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 37:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin23savage
AbaddonJaCkky
DoomRaven
TimbersawSancity
Earth SpiritMac
Visageeleven
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
DisruptorSe
Keeper of the LightJhocam
TinyNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 61%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3