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BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
47%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Fly · 15 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daxak · 14 games
71%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
61%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 32 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 30 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 29 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 22 games
82%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
578 picks · 634 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 332 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
500 picks · 684 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
476 picks · 183 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 531 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
439 picks · 216 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 543 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 529 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total52% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:35
Virtus.pro 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTimado
49% · 28 games37% · 14 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Puck
PuckAbed
51% · 294 games48% · 275 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
44% · 222 games57% · 226 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Muerta
MuertaHellscream
48% · 205 games53% · 120 games
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
57% · 87 games46% · 201 game
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed23:16
Virtus.pro 46%1w Team 54%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautTimado
43% · 120 games49% · 197 games
AbaddonMunkushi~
Abaddon
Undying
UndyingSabeRLight-
54% · 132 games31% · 11 games
NecrophosSquad1x
Necrophos
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
54% · 396 games47% · 228 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHellscream
54% · 133 games44% · 332 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Chen
ChenFly
55% · 179 games53% · 192 games
RingmasterRein
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct16:29
Virtus.pro 47%1w Team 53%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
54% · 117 games50% · 141 game
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaSabeRLight-
54% · 108 games45% · 167 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Tiny
TinyAbed
49% · 279 games53% · 277 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageHellscream
43% · 68 games58% · 128 games
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
Keeper of the Light
Warlock
WarlockFly
48% · 238 games43% · 97 games
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 52%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3