Team Refuser vs Game Master — prediction BSVЗО · Dota 2

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BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Refuserloss 0:2

series probability

41%59%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Game Masterwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Refuser

No games played over 6 months.

Game Master

Abaddonoften banned

Monet · 1 game

100%

Earth Spirit

7e · 1 game

100%

Enchantressoften banned

Poloson · 1 game

100%

Phoenix

Poloson · 1 game

100%

Primal Beastoften banned

JT- · 1 game

100%

Shadow Shaman

Kaka · 1 game

100%

Slarkoften banned

Monet · 1 game

100%

Spirit Breaker

Kaka · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

580 picks · 631 bans

49%

Tusk

510 picks · 329 bans

49%

Dragon Knight

498 picks · 684 bans

48%

Snapfire

478 picks · 184 bans

49%

Centaur Warrunner

440 picks · 530 bans

54%

Hoodwink

440 picks · 215 bans

53%

Mars

394 picks · 543 bans

50%

Pangolier

376 picks · 530 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%

Hero pool strength56% Game Master

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% Game Master

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct21:35

Team Refuser 46%Game Master 54%

The model gave 54% on Game Master — the game was taken by Game Master in 49:15.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo