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BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 28 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 19 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 17 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
36%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Shanks · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
38%

Ivory

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ken · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Teehee · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Teehee · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
25%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Bane
Bane
Teehee · 3 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Ken · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
589 picks · 630 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 332 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
502 picks · 690 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
489 picks · 188 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 532 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
443 picks · 223 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 542 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 536 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total86% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:29
Execration 71%Ivory 29%
The model gave 71% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzPalos
45% · 21 game44% · 206 games
GyrocopterKarma丶
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyBob
45% · 348 games44% · 130 games
Queen of PainKen
Queen of Pain
Axe
AxeTino-
48% · 196 games53% · 187 games
Centaur WarrunnerRupido
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightShanks
56% · 79 games55% · 139 games
Shadow DemonDric~
Shadow Demon
Mirana
Miranacml
60% · 43 games56% · 25 games
VenomancerTeehee
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct41:36
Execration 72%Ivory 28%
The model gave 72% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 48:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzPalos
61% · 24 games49% · 370 games
Dragon KnightKen
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
57% · 222 games48% · 225 games
WindrangerKarma丶
Windranger
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTino-
39% · 31 game53% · 180 games
TimbersawRupido
Timbersaw
Ringmaster
RingmasterShanks
50% · 258 games44% · 73 games
Skywrath MageDric~
Skywrath Mage
Tusk
Tuskcml
47% · 313 gameslittle data
Treant ProtectorTeehee
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 86%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2