EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Windranger
chempik · 9 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 8 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 6 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
Lich
Htrd · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
Rubick
queezy · 5 games
Ilbirs eSports
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 9 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
chempik · 9 games
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Windranger
Ponlo · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
526 picks · 375 bans
Rubick
432 picks · 258 bans
Tiny
367 picks · 370 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 633 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 436 bans
Windranger
326 picks · 232 bans
Phoenix
298 picks · 226 bans
Storm Spirit
293 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:19
Level UP 61%Ilbirs eSports 39%
The model gave 61% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerWoE
TerrorbladeKami
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Earth Spiritniche
DawnbreakerBb3px
LargoNorma
Hoodwinkqueezy
Dark WillowZayac
Witch DoctorHtrd
Ringmastermonodrama
Game 2prediction correct38:20
Level UP 61%Ilbirs eSports 39%
The model gave 61% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 28:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Drow RangerKami
Shadow FiendWoE
DawnbreakerNorma
LycanBb3px
Pangolierniche
Hoodwinkqueezy
Dark WillowZayac
BaneHtrd
Clockwerkmonodrama
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 69%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2