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BLAST Slam VI. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 34 games
71%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 32 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 32 games
72%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
slimeyao · 27 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 27 games
56%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
raregods · 45 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Htrd · 42 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 35 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 25 games
84%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Htrd · 24 games
54%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 23 games
65%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 22 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
594 picks · 622 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
510 picks · 330 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
501 picks · 690 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
498 picks · 192 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
449 picks · 224 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 528 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
400 picks · 542 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 545 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:11
HULIGANI 65%Rune Eaters 35%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
57% · 265 games41% · 132 games
Troll Warlordyowaai
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
55% · 346 games46% · 358 games
Dragon KnightEthereal
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarBb3px
51% · 241 game46% · 169 games
PhoenixAnkou
Phoenix
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRESPECT
53% · 67 games47% · 88 games
Lionmonodrama
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonslimeyao
53% · 274 games49% · 446 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct31:21
HULIGANI 63%Rune Eaters 37%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBb3px
52% · 149 games53% · 368 games
Ember SpiritEthereal
Ember Spirit
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
48% · 176 games49% · 221 game
Phantom Assassinyowaai
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
Tinyerase
42% · 490 games50% · 238 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
Windrangerslimeyao
48% · 200 games51% · 82 games
Dazzlemonodrama
Dazzle
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRESPECT
55% · 142 games52% · 248 games
Muertaani-san
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 73%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2