BLAST Slam VI. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 1:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Inner Circleloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 30 games
Warlock
kasane · 30 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 29 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 17 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 16 games
Tusk
Fernans · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Fernans · 13 games
Warlock
flacko · 12 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
Sven
yowaai · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
592 picks · 622 bans
Tusk
509 picks · 328 bans
Dragon Knight
501 picks · 689 bans
Snapfire
498 picks · 192 bans
Hoodwink
449 picks · 224 bans
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 526 bans
Mars
400 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 32%
Hero pool strength63% 1w Team
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total82% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:5
1w Team 70%Inner Circle 30%
The model gave 70% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 26:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Broodmother423
UrsaMunkushi~
Primal Beastlaise
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Monkey Kingniche
Tinyswedenstrong
JakiroLelis
WarlockRein
ClockwerkDaze
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 82%
Series result1w Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1