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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

496 Gaming

Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Bombi · 4 games
25%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Bombi · 3 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Red · 2 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ohaiyo · 1 game
0%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Boomy · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
cml · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 6 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Force · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
320 picks · 443 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
274 picks · 209 bans
60%
Monkey King
Monkey King
272 picks · 685 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
264 picks · 406 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
248 picks · 135 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
248 picks · 524 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
215 picks · 245 bans
46%
Lina
Lina
208 picks · 474 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:35
496 Gaming 32%Polaris Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 53:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracxsilearn
46% · 142 games56% · 138 games
Monkey KingNatsumi
Monkey King
Razor
RazorGhost
56% · 88 games51% · 32 games
Shadow FiendMac
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerRed
53% · 96 games47% · 243 games
GrimstrokeBoomy
Grimstroke
Snapfire
SnapfireBombi
46% · 185 games45% · 155 games
PangolierForce
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOhaiyo
52% · 115 games52% · 58 games
Ogre Magicml
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct20:43
496 Gaming 33%Polaris Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxsilearn
45% · 177 games46% · 107 games
UrsaNatsumi
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendGhost
64% · 36 games56% · 82 games
KunkkaMac
Kunkka
Timbersaw
TimbersawRed
47% · 168 games50% · 170 games
MiranaBoomy
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBombi
48% · 158 games54% · 74 games
MagnusForce
Magnus
Abaddon
AbaddonOhaiyo
49% · 181 game49% · 287 games
Lioncml
Lion
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 80%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2