Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SBSouth Built Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
496 Gaming
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Red · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Red · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 4 games
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Red · 2 games
South Built Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
431 picks · 938 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 584 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 659 bans
Mars
336 picks · 581 bans
Earth Spirit
306 picks · 272 bans
Tusk
260 picks · 174 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 368 bans
Grimstroke
250 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:40
496 Gaming 55%South Built Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by South Built Esports in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Winter WyvernBombi
GyrocopterAbat
38% · 4 games
PuckBob
63% · 4 games
PangolierEnryu
Game 2prediction correct30:18
496 Gaming 53%South Built Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireBombi
BristlebackAbat
little data
Dragon KnightBob
little data
SlardarEnryu
Game 3prediction missed13:35
496 Gaming 54%South Built Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by South Built Esports in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireBombi
GyrocopterAbat
little data
Ember SpiritBob
little data
AlchemistEnryu
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 57%
Series resultSouth Built Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3