EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 36 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 29 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 28 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 24 games
Tiny
Kami · 23 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 21 game
Nemiga Gaming
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 20 games
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
Hoodwink
ariel · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 18 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 15 games
Tusk
ariel · 15 games
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
534 picks · 381 bans
Rubick
439 picks · 264 bans
Tiny
375 picks · 374 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 636 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 442 bans
Windranger
328 picks · 232 bans
Phoenix
302 picks · 241 bans
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total63% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:25
Zero Tenacity 59%Nemiga Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 46:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
Shadow Fiendbyun
InvokerWorick
DawnbreakerCovisnine
UndyingMikSa`
Pangolieryoung G
BaneMoOz
TuskJANTER
Dark Willowmrls
Ringmasterariel
Game 2prediction correct40:17
Zero Tenacity 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 53:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealernesfeer
Terrorbladebyun
LargoMikSa`
Invokeryoung G
PangolierWorick
UnderlordCovisnine
Keeper of the Lightmrls
Lionariel
Winter WyvernMoOz
ClockwerkJANTER
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 63%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2