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BLAST Slam VI. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Risingwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cloud Dawningloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cloud Rising

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 4 games
25%
Sven
Sven
Yumeyume · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Q7 · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Q7 · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
100%

Cloud Dawning

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 622 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
512 picks · 688 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 326 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
510 picks · 197 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
457 picks · 225 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 529 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 549 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 555 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Cloud Dawning
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Cloud Rising
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:19
Cloud Rising 53%Cloud Dawning 47%
The model gave 53% on Cloud Rising — the game was taken by Cloud Dawning in 35:33.
Game 2prediction correct38:20
Cloud Rising 53%Cloud Dawning 47%
The model gave 53% on Cloud Rising — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 50:45.
Game 3prediction correct37:47
Cloud Rising 53%Cloud Dawning 47%
The model gave 53% on Cloud Rising — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 52:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteCloud Rising · 53%
Series resultCloud Rising 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3