EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 29 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 26 games
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 22 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 21 game
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 19 games
Ringmaster
QBFY · 17 games
PuckChamp
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 1 game
Earthshaker
gbc · 1 game
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
onLiTaL · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
onLiTaL · 1 game
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
543 picks · 384 bans
Rubick
444 picks · 270 bans
Tiny
377 picks · 374 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 635 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 448 bans
Windranger
328 picks · 232 bans
Phoenix
306 picks · 248 bans
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:41
Team Lynx 63%PuckChamp 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 58:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Phoenixkreker
Pangolierdualrazee
Dark WillowQBFY
Slardarkrol9ash
60% · 89 games
Keeper of the LightHyugadoto
44% · 65 games
TechiesGothic-
Game 2prediction missed43:30
Team Lynx 73%PuckChamp 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 37:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 73%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2