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BLAST Slam VI. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 17 games
35%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 17 games
35%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 15 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 14 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fernans · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
18%
Sven
Sven
yowaai · 11 games
27%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 11 games
36%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 41 game
46%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 31 game
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 29 games
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 29 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 27 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 26 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 621 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
519 picks · 203 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
515 picks · 691 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 327 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
464 picks · 231 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 533 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
407 picks · 553 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 565 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:30
Inner Circle 38%Pipsqueak+4 62%
The model gave 62% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 30:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster423
46% · 244 games63% · 40 games
ClinkzNande
Clinkz
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
52% · 246 games54% · 76 games
PudgeCopy
Pudge
Leshrac
Leshracniche
50% · 129 games52% · 103 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Rubick
RubickDaze
50% · 63 games50% · 226 games
Shadow DemonEkki
Shadow Demon
Warlock
WarlockLelis
44% · 298 games47% · 535 games
Jakiroaik
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed36:26
Inner Circle 41%Pipsqueak+4 59%
The model gave 59% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Siren423
61% · 158 games52% · 152 games
Shadow FiendCopy
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
56% · 264 games49% · 24 games
OmniknightNande
Omniknight
Primal Beast
Primal Beastlaise
46% · 154 games50% · 314 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskDaze
47% · 394 games48% · 369 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLelis
40% · 228 games51% · 339 games
Warlockaik
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct12:33
Inner Circle 40%Pipsqueak+4 60%
The model gave 60% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 23:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
51% · 343 games46% · 59 games
SniperCopy
Sniper
Void Spirit
Void Spiritniche
55% · 152 games50% · 54 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Underlord
Underlordlaise
52% · 94 games51% · 208 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLelis
60% · 71 game47% · 312 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
43% · 201 game47% · 228 games
Jakiroaik
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 63%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3