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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4 amigosloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apex Genesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4 amigos

Mirana
Mirana
albinozebra · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
33%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Double King · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
RCY · 3 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
0%

Apex Genesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Speeed · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
red2 · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 225 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 726 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 628 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 405 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 760 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 162 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 1036 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 748 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:21
4 amigos 37%Apex Genesis 63%
The model gave 63% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 47:57.
Game 2prediction correct38:12
4 amigos 37%Apex Genesis 63%
The model gave 63% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 32:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 63%
Series resultApex Genesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2