Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomerswin 2:1series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
simply TOOBASEDloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
456 picks · 297 bans
Queen of Pain
414 picks · 522 bans
Weaver
372 picks · 542 bans
Mars
358 picks · 504 bans
Kunkka
291 picks · 483 bans
Spirit Breaker
268 picks · 499 bans
Wraith King
255 picks · 342 bans
Snapfire
248 picks · 106 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total88% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
4 Zoomers 88%simply TOOBASED 12%
The model gave 88% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 31:19.
Game 2prediction missed23:49
4 Zoomers 88%simply TOOBASED 12%
The model gave 88% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 43:32.
Game 3prediction correct47:13
4 Zoomers 88%simply TOOBASED 12%
The model gave 88% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 41:47.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 88%
Series result4 Zoomers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3