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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
4ikibamboniloss 1:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Power Rangerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4ikibamboni

Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 9 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Ankou · 7 games
29%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 7 games
43%
Viper
Vipersignature
Ethereal · 7 games
86%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
waveformn · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
80%

Power Rangers

Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 31 game
52%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 30 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 25 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 22 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
633 picks · 439 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
582 picks · 325 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 571 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
454 picks · 663 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 379 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 525 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 410 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 1040 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
4ikibamboni 30%Power Rangers 70%
The model gave 70% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
52% · 305 games51% · 87 games
MagnusTA2000
Magnus
Monkey King
Monkey KingEthereal
48% · 211 games47% · 445 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierAnkou
44% · 366 games53% · 158 games
LargoAlberkaaa
Largo
Windranger
Windrangerwaveformn
49% · 272 games52% · 540 games
HoodwinkImmersion
Hoodwink
Bane
Baneani-san
57% · 230 games48% · 154 games
SilencerHduo
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed46:30
4ikibamboni 33%Power Rangers 67%
The model gave 67% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 53:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
51% · 340 games48% · 263 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Puck
PuckEthereal
50% · 438 games48% · 361 game
Snapfirenicky`cool
Snapfire
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
46% · 178 games47% · 369 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Marci
Marciwaveformn
50% · 204 games61% · 194 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Enchantress
Enchantressani-san
49% · 225 games50% · 198 games
ClockwerkImmersion
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct26:40
4ikibamboni 33%Power Rangers 67%
The model gave 67% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangeryowaai
43% · 185 games41% · 7 games
SpectreTA2000
Spectre
Death Prophet
Death ProphetEthereal
59% · 27 games53% · 344 games
Slardarnicky`cool
Slardar
Axe
AxeAnkou
47% · 199 games51% · 294 games
SnapfireAlberkaaa
Snapfire
Rubick
Rubickani-san
48% · 203 games49% · 275 games
Shadow DemonImmersion
Shadow Demon
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
44% · 460 games62% · 154 games
Treant ProtectorHduo
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 80%
Series resultPower Rangers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3