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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
36%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
57%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 11 games
55%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
swedenstrong · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
476 picks · 612 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
462 picks · 398 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
456 picks · 571 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
437 picks · 543 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 487 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 781 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
404 picks · 905 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total82% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:34
4Pirates 33%1w Team 67%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperOtaker
51% · 178 games45% · 369 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
46% · 303 games53% · 142 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Viper
ViperNattyNarwhal
45% · 91 game51% · 215 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Warlock
WarlockPERDAN4IK
43% · 33 games63% · 96 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Clockwerk
Clockwerkariel
51% · 459 games52% · 242 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed49:16
4Pirates 32%1w Team 68%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 56:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOtaker
45% · 172 games53% · 392 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
48% · 409 games50% · 335 games
PhoenixCloud
Phoenix
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
48% · 286 games51% · 242 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Warlock
WarlockPERDAN4IK
54% · 45 games54% · 243 games
Magnusswedenstrong
Magnus
Batrider
Batriderariel
41% · 436 games58% · 136 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct19:38
4Pirates 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 49:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightOtaker
47% · 167 games52% · 218 games
AlchemistMunkushi~
Alchemist
Primal Beast
Primal Beastмистер мораль
48% · 102 games55% · 65 games
LycanCloud
Lycan
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
45% · 132 games46% · 233 games
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
Earth Spirit
Batrider
Batriderariel
46% · 169 games64% · 32 games
Rikiswedenstrong
Riki
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
66% · 23 games48% · 45 games
WarlockFishman
Warlock
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 82%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3