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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 25 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 25 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
73%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
67%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 22 games
68%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
308 picks · 770 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
302 picks · 280 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 174 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
264 picks · 715 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
264 picks · 295 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
258 picks · 247 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
257 picks · 734 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
255 picks · 597 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:35
4Pirates 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordOtaker
59% · 49 games56% · 159 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNattyNarwhal
49% · 211 games49% · 106 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Silencer
SilencerPERDAN4IK
47% · 159 games43% · 160 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Tusk
Tuskariel
48% · 399 games54% · 155 games
Enchantresskasane
Enchantress
49% · 238 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct25:21
4Pirates 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 46:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordOtaker
54% · 52 games54% · 91 game
MedusaMunkushi~
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
46% · 307 games48% · 162 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
47% · 203 games48% · 183 games
BristlebackSSS
Bristleback
Dazzle
DazzlePERDAN4IK
57% · 88 games52% · 124 games
Snapfireswedenstrong
Snapfire
47% · 90 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2