FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Muerta
ariel · 9 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
Timbersawsignature
мистер мораль · 6 games
Lion
ariel · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 5 games
Underlord
мистер мораль · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
9Pandas
Tinysignature
erase · 11 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 10 games
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
laise · 9 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 8 games
Alchemistsignature
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
yamich · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
472 picks · 587 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 527 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 573 bans
Dark Willow
371 picks · 182 bans
Batrider
369 picks · 407 bans
Muerta
362 picks · 271 bans
Beastmaster
332 picks · 713 bans
Invoker
331 picks · 922 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total66% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:3
4Pirates 38%9Pandas 62%
The model gave 62% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 21:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axeмистер мораль
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
DawnbreakerOtaker
Magnuserase
TinyNattyNarwhal
Brewmasterlaise
Muertaariel
Grimstrokejesv
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
LichSolo
Game 2prediction missed38:53
4Pirates 42%9Pandas 58%
The model gave 58% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 59:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerOtaker
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
PuckNattyNarwhal
Storm Spiriterase
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Marslaise
TinyPERDAN4IK
Dark Willowjesv
Lionariel
Elder TitanSolo
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 66%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2