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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9Pandaswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
36%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 13 games
54%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 11 games
36%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 26 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 17 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 15 games
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
512 picks · 690 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
476 picks · 599 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 405 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
474 picks · 566 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 549 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
435 picks · 799 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
431 picks · 952 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total53% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:15
4Pirates 49%9Pandas 51%
The model gave 51% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanOtaker
46% · 90 games49% · 65 games
LifestealerV-Tune
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
55% · 304 games49% · 362 games
PangolierSerenada
Pangolier
Beastmaster
Beastmasterмистер мораль
48% · 316 games51% · 256 games
Phoenixlaise
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockPERDAN4IK
48% · 58 games50% · 187 games
EnchantressSolo
Enchantress
Lion
Lionariel
48% · 297 games54% · 195 games
Magnuslupsione
Magnus
Game 2prediction correct20:31
4Pirates 48%9Pandas 52%
The model gave 52% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 31:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinOtaker
41% · 137 games49% · 215 games
Dragon KnightV-Tune
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
47% · 510 games52% · 165 games
InvokerSerenada
Invoker
Huskar
Huskarмистер мораль
58% · 47 games58% · 62 games
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanariel
52% · 85 games48% · 307 games
Clockwerklupsione
Clockwerk
Lich
LichPERDAN4IK
50% · 224 games52% · 254 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct24:39
4Pirates 48%9Pandas 52%
The model gave 52% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 49:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeOtaker
48% · 248 games52% · 91 game
LinaSerenada
Lina
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
56% · 296 games49% · 214 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
53% · 246 games49% · 162 games
Doomlaise
Doom
Warlock
WarlockPERDAN4IK
39% · 52 games54% · 172 games
Shadow Demonlupsione
Shadow Demon
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterariel
40% · 61 game53% · 264 games
ClockwerkSolo
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 53%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3