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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASAKURAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
36%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Lich
Lichsignature
VaniLLl · 8 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
7jesu · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
484 picks · 626 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
466 picks · 402 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
459 picks · 580 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
444 picks · 554 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 499 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 786 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
410 picks · 916 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% ASAKURA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:23
4Pirates 54%ASAKURA 46%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaOtaker
51% · 145 games40% · 39 games
Bloodseeker7jesu
Bloodseeker
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
55% · 192 games47% · 177 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyNattyNarwhal
53% · 411 games47% · 157 games
MagnusVladikTheHtiviy
Magnus
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterariel
59% · 36 games53% · 182 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Warlock
WarlockPERDAN4IK
53% · 48 games41% · 277 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed43:41
4Pirates 52%ASAKURA 48%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 56:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNattyNarwhal
50% · 421 game53% · 157 games
Bristleback7jesu
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal Beastмистер мораль
54% · 293 games47% · 92 games
Linayoung G
Lina
Slark
SlarkOtaker
48% · 54 games46% · 350 games
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlockPERDAN4IK
50% · 46 games44% · 211 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterariel
55% · 52 games54% · 56 games
Shadow Shamanslimeyao
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 58%
Series resultASAKURA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2