CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
ariel · 32 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 20 games
Ban9PivoSamogon
Pugna
VaniLLl · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
ififall · 4 games
Disruptor
not me · 4 games
Doomoften banned
ififall · 4 games
Pudge
not me · 4 games
Dazzleoften banned
ряф^^ · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
zvёzd · 3 games
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
495 picks · 535 bans
Dark Willow
387 picks · 228 bans
Tusk
355 picks · 411 bans
Puck
332 picks · 878 bans
Batrider
327 picks · 930 bans
Pangolier
311 picks · 480 bans
Tiny
311 picks · 289 bans
Nature's Prophet
298 picks · 616 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:57
4Pirates 59%Ban9PivoSamogon 41%
The model gave 59% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spiritряф^^
DawnbreakerOtaker
Ursazvёzd
Slardarмистер мораль
Doomififall
Snapfireariel
Nature's Prophetnot me
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
ClockwerkVaniLLl
Game 2prediction missed17:42
4Pirates 64%Ban9PivoSamogon 36%
The model gave 64% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaOtaker
Abaddonzvёzd
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Ember Spiritряф^^
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Timbersawififall
Zeusariel
ClockwerkVaniLLl
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
Disruptornot me
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 71%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2