FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:3series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Chimera Esportswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Muerta
ariel · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
мистер мораль · 8 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
Lionsignature
ariel · 6 games
Sniperoften banned
Otaker · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 5 games
Chimera Esports
Clockwerkoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
Muerta
OneJey · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
Panto · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
433 picks · 522 bans
Tusk
433 picks · 527 bans
Pangolier
379 picks · 569 bans
Muerta
368 picks · 287 bans
Batrider
361 picks · 401 bans
Dark Willow
343 picks · 171 bans
Beastmaster
334 picks · 729 bans
Lion
320 picks · 144 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 70%
Hero pool strength62% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:25
4Pirates 31%Chimera Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 59:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomOtaker
Monkey KingLorenof
Timbersawмистер мораль
BeastmasterDaxak
SniperNattyNarwhal
Dragon KnightTA2000
TinyPERDAN4IK
PhoenixPanto
Lionariel
MuertaOneJey
Game 2prediction correct10:40
4Pirates 27%Chimera Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaOtaker
Templar AssassinTA2000
Underlordмистер мораль
PuckLorenof
MagnusNattyNarwhal
EnigmaDaxak
Muertaariel
ClockwerkOneJey
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
Shadow DemonPanto
Game 3prediction correct6:36
4Pirates 32%Chimera Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomмистер мораль
Dragon KnightLorenof
Templar AssassinOtaker
Drow RangerTA2000
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
BeastmasterDaxak
Lionariel
MuertaOneJey
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
ClockwerkPanto
Game 4prediction correct15:47
4Pirates 29%Chimera Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordOtaker
Templar AssassinTA2000
Axeмистер мораль
PuckLorenof
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
EnigmaDaxak
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
Naga SirenPanto
Lionariel
MuertaOneJey
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 83%
Series resultChimera Esports 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4